2017 LATIN AMERICA: PERU IS PNWA’S TOP PICK AMONG ANDEAN COUNTRIES
Stephen E Murphy, PNWA’s Senior Advisor, Latin America and Caribbean, reports that Peru, a country of 32 million has been consistently growing under several democratically elected governments with proper transition. Its newly elected President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PK), is expected to cut back government regulations and to encourage more foreign investment. GDP growth is estimated over 4% in 2017, depending on the price of copper. GDP per capita is $6,000 CloudFare’s new data center (above) in Lima is an example of a new multinational firm setting up in Peru’s capital. The company advises that “Its new data center reduces the latency to access customer websites, adding redundancy and capacity, in order to absorb possible cyber-attacks.”
Colombia hopes to receive a ‘peace dividend’ from its recent deal with the FARC guerrillas and Chile hopes for improved copper prices. GDP growth may reach 2% in both countries with unpopular presidents. Venezuela, on the verge of civil war, should be avoided, with business conducted in Miami.
Southern Cone economies stumble, save Paraguay: This has been a tumultuous year for Brazil, when its Congress impeached its president, and Argentina spiraled into steep recession upon President Macri’s election. GDP growth in both countries is estimated to break even, with unemployment high while austerity measures continue. Only little Paraguay of 6M people is expected to growth over 3% in 2017, thanks to agricultural expansion.
Mexico’s growth slows and Cuba’s tourism booms: No other country will be as uneasy over its future as Mexico, following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election, the latter threatening to redo NAFTA. Mexico’s growth in 2017 is expected to slow to 2%, but Costa Rica’s should stay steady at 4%, thanks to eco-tourism. Panama is the other Central American market growing over 4% from increased canal tonnage and expatriate investment. In Cuba, tourism is growing apace from norteamericanos, as AirBnB reports 40% increases over previous year. PNWA’s associate in Havana notes more visits by US tourism and IT firms, still seeking a ‘profitable M.O.’ GDP growth is expected at 3% in 2017, fueled by the private sector. Contact Steve by email.